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(AC Propulsion Civic Electric featured in photo)
Charging into future Electric autos have a long road ahead before they get to market
San Francisco Examiner - September 24, 1995 by Keay Davidson, Examiner Science Writer To "Baywatch" actress Alexandra Paul, electric cars are the solution to air pollution: emission-free, near-noiseless vehicles that need little maintenance and can be recharged at home. "There's nothing I hate doing more than filling up a gas tank, and you don't have to do that with an electric," said Paul, who drives her electric car to "work" - a Southern California beach sprinkled with TV lights and extras. But to Andrew H. Card Jr., president and CEO of the American Automobile Manufacturers Association, electric vehicles aren't ready to handle long trips, rugged terrain or cold weather. "I'm not denying we are a special interest, but this time the special interests are challenged by the laws of science - of physics and chemistry," said Card, who was Transportation secretary under President George Bush. Because of continuing battery problems, "nobody wants to put a lemon in the marketplace . . . (because) people are going to be mad about whoever sold them these things." Whoever's right, Californians are about to witness a major shift. Under a state law that could set a national standard, about one in 50 new cars sold in 1998 must emit no pollution - and only electric cars meet the test. The regulation would add 20,000 to 30,000 electric cars to California roads the first year alone. But after decades of research, the most successful electric cars have proven practical mainly for short trips on relatively even terrain and at moderate speeds. You won't drive an electric car to Alaska or up Mount McKinley - and perhaps not even to Sacramento - until battery performance improves. "The advanced lead-acid batteries that will be used will provide less than the fuel storage equivalent of two gallons of gasoline," said William Glaub*, general sales manager of General Motors Corp. "This is like leaving home every day with the "low fuel' light on." New studies at UC-Davis suggest that the life spans of the most advanced batteries are unpredictable. For that reason, a leading electric car enthusiast said, the state Air Resources Board should allow automakers to phase in electric cars more gradually. The state's push for electric cars has produced a pitched battle among three powerful industries: Oil companies fear the cars would eliminate much of the market for gasoline. Detroit's "Big Three" auto firms are developing electric cars but don't want to be forced by government to market them. And utilities such as Pacific Gas & Electric welcome the potential to sell more power. Interest groups are cranking up. The state is imposing the "most expensive and least effective way" to improve air quality, charges David Fogarty, an associate at Woodward & McDowell, the public relations firm leading the opposition campaign for the Western States Petroleum Association. He says the way to cut pollution is "by taking the smog hogs off the road" - the small percentage of old cars with poor exhaust-control systems. Maureen Anderson, a publicist for the Union of Concerned Scientists, counters that critics "are the same people who didn't want seat belts in cars, they didn't want safe bumpers, they didn't want catalytic converters, they didn't want air bags." The stars come out The best-known "E-car" backers are celebrities such as Paul and actor Ed Begley Jr. After driving her electric car home from work, Paul recharges it nightly at her Brentwood condo. "It's so quiet - no rumbling or coughing, like gas-powered cars - that when you stop at the stoplight, people think you've stalled," she said. It's her second electric car. She bought the first one several years ago when she was outraged by the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska. "It's easy to blame the oil companies that supply us with gasoline," she said, "but we're the junkies who keep buying it." Her optimism about electric cars is shared by the Air Resources Board, which has cited "extremely promising" advanced batteries. But a December report by the General Accounting Office in Washington warned that none of the three advanced batteries were "likely to be ready for large-scale commercial use for the 1998 state mandates." Professor Daniel Sperling and his colleagues are testing advanced batteries at UC-Davis' Institute of Transportation Studies. Sperling, a prominent electric-car advocate, concluded this summer that the batteries' "life span and performance in road conditions" were still hard to forecast, partly because "we don't understand the battery chemistry very well" and partly because "we don't have much knowledge of how people drive their vehicles." Sperling said the Air Resources Board should consider lowering the 1998 requirement to 1 in 200 cars sold from the current 1 in 50. That would give auto companies more time "to work out the bugs," said Sperling, a professor of civil engineering and environmental studies. Otherwise, he said, auto manufacturers might flood the market with technically troubled electric cars. Supporters say there will at least be a "niche" market for the vehicles, predicted to cost $20,000 to $50,000. But auto dealers are skeptical that many E-cars will roll out of showrooms. "We will sell a few, (but) I don't believe they've been perfected enough for us to sell them in large numbers," said Marie Brooks, president of Ellis Brooks Chevrolet in San Francisco. Martin Swig, a Chrysler and Saab dealer on Van Ness Avenue, is hostile to the plan. "Their (cars') range is insufficient," he said. "If I had to go to San Jose for a meeting today, I couldn't get back. . . . Every time the government tries to control the economy, it just screws things up." Keeping the heat on carmakers Sperling wants to stick with the 1998 deadline to "keep the (auto) industry's feet to the fire." Auto manufacturers "have been derelict in how little attention they've given to (the battery problem) until the last few years . . . That's the reality." "Eventually, I think that electrical vehicles will dominate the motor-vehicle market - not just battery vehicles, but "fuel cell' vehicles and also "hybrid' vehicles that have electric motors combined with small internal combustion engines," he said. "It's inevitable because it's much more efficient, much less polluting, much quieter and much more reliable than gasoline vehicles." Five years have passed since the Air Resources Board launched California's historic experiment with electric cars. Twelve other states are watching closely - 10 are considering similar rules. New York and Massachusetts have mandates that will take effect in 1998. In 1990, the board ordered seven auto manufacturers that sell more than 35,000 cars a year in California - General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Mazda - to prepare to start selling "zero-emission vehicles" by their 1998 model years. The state requires each to sell 2 percent non-polluting cars by the 1998 model year, 5 percent by 2001 and 10 percent by 2003. If they fail to meet the standard, they'll be fined $5,000 per unsold electric car. In 2003, the state will require 10 percent of new cars to be electric and will include any automaker that sells at least 3,000 cars in California. The present 1998 requirement would double the number of electric cars in California. The state already has about 35,000, most built by specialty firms or converted from gasoline-powered cars. Most are owned by companies for purposes such as fleet vehicles. There is disagreement whether E-cars are as "green" as promised. The GAO report noted that electricity often came from fossil-fuel power plants, which create their own forms of pollution, such as sulfur dioxide from coal. California plants don't rely heavily on fossil-fuel, but some states and other nations do. "Nations that rely heavily on coal and oil for electricity production . . . could see substantial increases in sulfur dioxide emissions . . . and no change or even moderate increases in carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides," the GAO said. The Air Resources Board disagrees. Power plants, stationary and relatively few in number, are easier to control than millions of cars, it says. In June, economics professor Lester B. Lave and his colleagues at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh claimed that use of lead-acid batteries in electric cars would increase lead pollution by up to 60 times. Bill Sessa, an electric-car advocate at PG&E, dismisses the Lave study, saying it's based on assumptions that are "almost otherworldly." "It ignores the fact there already are recyclers who can recycle as much as 99 percent of a lead-acid battery with no adverse environmental consequences," he said. Making batteries better Gasoline cars use small batteries to start their gasoline engines. But electric cars are powered entirely by huge batteries. The typical E-car battery weighs about 500 pounds, about half the vehicle's weight. It takes six to 10 hours to fully recharge, but researchers are developing systems that may restore power in several minutes. A new generation of lead-acid batteries has thinner electricity-transmitting "plates," reducing electrical resistance. As a result, today's lead-acid batteries store almost twice as much electricity as 20 years ago, says Bob Swaroop, manager of energy systems at the Electric Power Research Institute in Palo Alto. Another battery type - nickel-metal-hydride - doesn't allow cars to accelerate as quickly as lead-acid, but they store almost twice the electricity, Swaroop said. Improved nickel-metal-hydride batteries are being developed by the U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium, a group of industries and federal agencies with an interest in electric cars. Swaroop said researchers had managed to boost storage by using purer chemicals, higher concentrations and different crystal structures of certain elements, and varied surface areas and porosities of components. The consortium aims to develop a lead-acid battery that can hold five times the electricity of present designs, with a life span of around 10 years, compared with the current two. "There's a lot more potential in lead acid than what's been mined," said Mike Semmens, president of Electrosource, an Austin, Texas, battery company. Electric cars have advantages over gasoline vehicles, including:
But none of it means much if the batteries aren't up to snuff. "Although a technical breakthrough could occur at any time," the GAO said, "we believe from our literature review and interviews with experts that none of the three . . . advanced battery types are likely to be ready for large-scale commercial use for the 1998 state mandates."
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